Updates

Week 6 – November 13, 2025

A dog swimming in water with a duck in its mouth.

We got back in the air for the waterfowl flight on Thursday, November 13, 2025. We have had an increase in duck abundance since our last flight, especially diving ducks! Total duck abundance (384,076) was 5% greater than long-term averages in the Illinois River Valley, thanks largely to every duck not called mallard. Unfortunately, mallard abundance (101,806) was observed 26% below LTA this week on the Illinois River. Green-winged teal (26%), pintail (14%), gadwall (25%), and shoveler (17%) abundances were all greater than LTA this week. We even seemed to have picked up some divers this week, which makes sense, given the harvest reports in our local area.

Outside of the apparent increase in divers, abundance trends along the Mississippi River were drastically different from those observed on the Illinois River this week. Mallard (-64%), pintail (-19%), and green-winged teal (-3%) abundances were all below LTAs along this river system. Other than redheads, scaup, and canvasbacks, all other species were also below LTA this week, ultimately leading to total duck abundance being 22% below LTA this week. Though the divers on pool 19 aren’t necessarily “early,” I wasn’t expecting the number we saw. The rafts took a couple of extra passes to wrap my head around.

I didn’t get to do one last year, so this is my annual tribute to our four-legged companions. Dogs play a vital role in the hunt, if you’re lucky enough to hunt over a good one. I’m thankful that I have been. In the dog community, you’ll often hear “retrievers save game.” Although I don’t need it because I’ve seen it with my own eyes, there is data to support this claim. In fact, data suggests a well-trained retriever can increase recoveries of crippled birds by as much as 40%. Aside from having a much better sense of smell than we do, they can get in and out of places we just can’t as humans. And let’s face it, it’s much more convenient to send a dog to chase a downed bird than trudge through the muck to get to it yourself.

Personally, dogs are an integral part of life. They keep me company on slow hunts, nudge my arm for a retrieve when they know I need a break from the computer, and are a part of my family. We spend a lot of time in the off-season training and, to me, there’s just nothing like watching a dog do its work. A good gundog is never late and is our extra set of eyes in the duck blind. They only want to do their job well for you and won’t rest until they do. They’re irreplaceable. Family.

Another saying in the dog community: the cost of owning a good dog is heartbreak at the end. I don’t need data to know that’s true either. Give ‘em a little extra food, scratch the scruff of their neck, and maybe pat them on the belly a time or two. We don’t deserve dogs, but I’m sure glad He gave ‘em to us.

For more information on the survey and this week’s numbers, visit Aerial Inventories.

Week 5 – October 23, 2025

Aerial view of a flooded agricultural field with ducks in the water.

We got back in the air for the waterfowl flight on Thursday, October 23, 2025. We have picked up more early migrators and even had a small push of mallards, but still fell below long-term averages for duck abundance this week. While we did see a slight increase in water level on the Illinois, our ducks, still mostly green-winged teal and northern pintail, remain congregated in freshly flooded, moist-soil areas (and a few cornfields). Total duck abundance (146,925) was observed 29% below long-term averages in the Illinois River Valley. Both mallard (-43%) and northern pintail (-17%) abundances were significantly below LTAs this week in the Illinois River. A bright spot this week was the abundance of green-winged teal. My estimate was 5% above the LTA for this river, with almost half of the increase attributed to Chautauqua NWR. We had to make an extra pass or two to feel comfortable with that particular estimate.

Although not as drastic as those witnessed in the IRV, similar trends were observed along the Mississippi River this week. Mallard (-32%), pintail (-8%), and green-winged teal (-15%) abundances were all below LTAs along this river system, ultimately leading to duck abundance being 32% below LTA this week. I got mixed reports from north zone hunters regarding their opener last week, but it sounds like central zone youth had good hunts. It’s our turn in the central zone this week.

I was getting gear ready earlier this week for our opener here in central Illinois on Saturday, and looked up in the loft at the “motion bag.” That old Roger’s bag has seen better days, and so have the 4-5 fading, shot-riddled, but somehow still working spinning wing decoys (SWD) inside.

Admittedly, I just don’t use the things anymore, and I should probably throw them out to make room for something else to collect dust in that corner. Like every blind in the flyway, our group has the “spinner” discussion every year. Is it worth it to drag them out? When do YOU think we should put them away? What happened to that baby Mojo hen’s head?! Are they still effective?

Removing all personal opinions here, there is data to suggest that spinners do, in fact, make a difference. Studies across the country have shown a strong latitudinal effect, meaning that as birds get further down the flyway, they become less susceptible. Similarly, there is a strong early-season effect of SWD but a declining effect throughout the season. Studies also show that the effectiveness of SWD is likely to be species- and age-dependent. Mallards and wigeon seem to be the most susceptible, and juveniles are much more likely to be fooled by SWD. And, yes, there has even been research on when it is more effective to use them.

The younger hunters out there may not remember, but several states and provinces in Canada banned SWD in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The concern was that SWDs were effective enough to warrant an evaluation of population-level impacts. USFWS conducted that evaluation, and SWDs were shown not to have effects on populations; as a result, many states/provinces began lifting bans in the mid-2000s.

So, the next time you’re sitting in the blind or at the local watering hole and the spinner topic comes up, just throw Caswell and Caswell 2004, Szymanski et al. 2005, Ackerman et al. 22006, or any other of the published papers at them. Unless, of course, you don’t want to use them… In that case, just say that you’re out there to eat breakfast and take sunrise pictures.

Good luck to everyone getting out this weekend. Stay safe and be excellent to one another. For more information on the survey and this week’s numbers, visit Aerial Inventories.

Week 4 – October 14, 2025

A duck blind in the middle of a body of water, which also features a body of land jutting out into the water.

We got back in the air for the waterfowl flight on Tuesday, October 14, 2025. I don’t have good news for waterfowl hunters in the area. Water level in the Illinois River Valley is much lower than usual, and a few of the larger refuges in the Central MS River Valley don’t yet have water. Duck abundance is lower than long-term averages across both rivers. Because of the low water levels, our ducks, mostly green-winged teal and northern pintail, are congregated in freshly flooded moist-soil areas (and a few corn fields). As previously mentioned, total duck abundances were below their respective LTAs for the IRV (81,205) and CMRV (57,935) this week (coincidentally, both 32% below LTAs).

My takeaways from this flight are the low water levels and, seemingly, delayed migration. Blue wings are much more abundant in our region right now as compared to previous years (+112% for the IRV and +143% for the CMRV), while abundances of our other dabbling ducks are all below long-term averages. The old adage goes “if you don’t like the weather, just hang around a while…” I sure hope that is the case.

A favorite part of these early flights for both Mike and me is getting to see lots of different hunting setups. They’re as diverse as they are creative, and it’s always fun to see how folks adapt to their surroundings. Concealment is key, comfort is a luxury, and legality is, of course, important as well. Hunting in a big floating blind was a different beast for me when I moved here from the south. Most of my hunting had previously been standing next to a tree or lying in a small grass impoundment, waiting for ducks to circle overhead. So, even after 10 years, I’m still learning things about the big blinds. I often get asked what the thing is that sticks out most when we see blinds from above. It’s always movement and faces. Always.

So good luck to the hunters in these blinds, our north zone hunters, and central zone youth hunters this weekend! I hope I can include great hunting reports from them all next week! For more information on the survey and this week’s numbers, visit Aerial Inventories.

Aerial view of a large group of ducks in a lake. — A mixture of dabbling ducks, mostly green-winged teal and northern pintail, in a flooded ag edge near the confluence of the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers.

Week 3 – September 19, 2025

Aerial view of pelicans and waterfowl flying above a body of water.

We got up in the air for the waterfowl flight on Friday, September 19, 2025. It was much of the same this week as the Illinois river level continued to drop, and many of the connected backwaters exposed more mudflats. Abundances continue to be lower than long-term averages across both rivers, though the difference is less pronounced in the central Mississippi River valley. I did observe more green-winged teal and northern pintail this week, and it appears that our blue wings are moving out of the region. Blue-winged teal abundance dropped from ~17,000 last week to 5,565 this week in the IRV and from ~5,000 to ~3,000 in the CMRV. As previously mentioned, blue-winged teal (5,565) and total duck (20,275) abundances were below their respective LTAs for the Illinois River this week (-64%, and -47% respectively). Abundance trends were also low along the MS River, at -31% and -20% for blue-winged teal (2,850) and total ducks (7,190), respectively. Consistently low abundances appear to be a trend during the early 2025 migration. We have one more flight before taking a two-week break. Hopefully, that trend changes soon.

Week 2 – September 11, 2025

Wetlands winding through fields and wooded areas (aerial).

Quick update from the survey last Thursday, September 11. The Illinois River continues to drop, but the freshly exposed mudflats won’t have time to grow new food before the end of the growing season. While this year’s trend in blue-winged teal migration seems to match that of previous years, abundance is quite lower. Blue-winged teal (14,595) and total duck (20,360) abundance were below their respective LTAs for the Illinois River this week (-32%, and -41% respectively). Blue-wing abundance was also low along the MS River, down -33% and -43% from LTA for blue-winged teal (4,715) and total ducks (6,160), respectively.

Here’s hoping these trends aren’t indicative of the waterfowl migration that is to come later this fall! We hope to get in the air tomorrow for this week’s waterfowl survey.

Small pool of water dotted with teal, surrounded by grass. — Figure 1. Teal on a small pool on Swan Lake at Two Rivers NWR.

First Aerial Inventory Flight of 2025 Season – August 27, 2025

aerial view of green fields with water in distance.

We got up in the air for the first fall waterfowl flight of 2025 on Wednesday, August 27th. We’ll call this week zero since we’re about a week ahead of schedule, earlier than we typically start the flights. There was interest among the lab and our partners in seeing what abundances looked like during the first few days of the teal migration, and we certainly did that. And you usually don’t need to twist my arm to get me into the survey plane, at least not during this time of year.

Much like 2024, summer drawdowns were effective along many of the Illinois and MS rivers’ backwaters. So far, the waterfowl food production looks above average for the 2025 fall flight in our region. As always, many hunters will depend on timely and reasonable rains over the course of the fall. There is more water on the landscape in the IRV as compared to last year, especially on the upper reach of the river. It’s a good thing these plants like their feet wet. Water is up and into the plants in many backwaters, but it looks like most of it has escaped being overtopped. We’re early yet, so I won’t make comparisons to a 10-year average that is a week ahead, but we did count a reasonable abundance of blue-winged teal, no doubt flying in with the recent cool weather we’ve experienced. I observed 9,890 and 1,160 blue-winged teal along the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers this week, and even saw a few pintail, green-winged teal, and shoveler. There are plenty of ducks in the area to get the blood pumping and get you excited enough to round up the hunting gear. Fall waterfowl migration 2025 is underway, and all is right in the world again!

This week’s numbers and additional information about our surveys are available on our Aerial Inventories page.

Week 10 – November 6, 2024

One woman mugs for the camera while holding a drake mallard that's being measured by another.

We got up for the aerial waterfowl survey of the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers on Wednesday, November 6th. Duck abundance was below the long-term average along both rivers this week, but especially low relative to LTA on the central MS River. I estimated ~298,000 ducks in the IRV on Friday, a 13% increase from last week but 14% below the 10-year average of ~346,000 ducks. Mallards continue to be significantly below LTA for the Illinois (-33%), while green-winged teal are 17% above their LTA and by far the most abundant species observed this week. I estimated ~271,000 ducks on the central Mississippi River, a 54% increase from last week but 30% below the 10-year average (~386,000). Though mallards are also below LTA along this river (-54%), we did observe an increase in most duck species this week, especially green-winged teal and northern pintail. The largest jump in abundance this week was observed on Swan Lake at Two Rivers NWR. Total duck abundance increased by 125% on this refuge, jumping from ~36,000 ducks last week to ~78,000 on Wednesday.

We had two “firsts” this week for our third field season of mallard and green-winged teal transmitter deployment. One was our first harvest of a 2024-marked bird, a green-winged teal shot on Thursday on a private property in Fulton County. Secondly, and somewhat surprisingly, we had the first departure of a 2024-marked bird. The surprising part was not the departure; it was the fact that it was a mallard. This is the earliest departure from our study area by a mallard during the 3 years of this project. In research, we are often concerned with “observer effects,” or how the methods we are using to investigate a question could potentially change the very thing we are trying to understand. Certainly, with transmitters, that question has been raised. After all, we are strapping 20g (and 10g) blocks of electronics+expoxy to the backs of these birds and wishing them the best of luck… all in the name of science. Could we be altering the birds’ movements, departure timing, survival, behaviors, etc., with these units? It doesn’t seem like it with this particular early-departing mallard. The mallard team at TN Tech shed some light on this question in a recent manuscript. They compared encounter reports of over 400 mallards fitted with GSM transmitters to birds captured during the same study, but only banded with USGS leg bands. They concluded that the two cohorts had similar harvest rates, winter dispersal distances, and harvest distributions, and that harness transmitters provide reliable information on wintering mallard ecology. The next step for researchers is evaluating these effects on other species and at different times of the life cycle. This week’s numbers are on the Aerial Inventories page.

Satellite map of Illinois with yellow line marking path of 2024-banded mallard from Havana almost to Carbondale.

Week 9 – November 1, 2024

Three northern shovelers being held by human hands.

A booner spooner being held by human hands. — Booner Spooner

Wind and rain forced another late-week flight, but we managed the aerial waterfowl survey of the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers on Friday, November 1st. Duck abundance was on par with the long-term average in the Illinois River valley, but below LTA along the central MS River. I estimated ~263,310 ducks in the IRV on Friday, just above the 10-year average of ~260,000 ducks. What impressed me with that number is that we are on par with LTA while still ~22% below the LTA for mallards along this river. Northern pintail, American green-winged teal, and gadwall helped make up the deficit in total duck abundance. I estimated 176,800 ducks on the central Mississippi River, 23% below the 10-year average (~230,000). Mallards are also below LTA along this river (-47%), but we are missing gadwall, northern pintail, and northern shoveler in this region as well. It sure seems like we’re getting the “calendar ducks,” the photoperiod or migrators and birds that prefer warmer climes. The unseasonably warm temps on the prairies will likely need to cease before we see a change in the mallard deficit in our survey area. Fingers crossed that happens soon.

Friday flight again, so I’m cutting the post short. But here’s a shout-out to the Forbes crew for working tirelessly these past few weeks to get transmitters out on our target species, green-winged teal and mallards. Some of the crew were rewarded this morning with a few non-targets… shovelers! I’m really jealous that I was stuck on the plane and didn’t get to band a few of them. Northern shovelers in the trap always bring a smile to our faces… git it? SMILE to our faces? I digress… They have perhaps the most unique foraging behavior of any waterfowl. A group of shovelers will sometimes collectively spin in a circle, creating a vortex in the water column, and bringing invertebrates up from the bottom and into the reach of their spoon-shaped bills. They also hold the record (probably) for the most aliases of a bird species. Whether you call them bootlips, smiling mallards, hollywoods, souplips, spoonies, spoon-dawgs, spooners, the “real” green head, smileys… You get the picture, you can always count on them to turn a slow hunt into a fun one. My personal favorite moniker for shovelers is “bologna snatcher.” I hope you all have been able to get out and enjoy the marsh! Good luck to the MO hunters in our survey area who have their opener this weekend! Because of the late flight, I don’t have a note for this week prepared. In the central zone, our time in the marsh starts on Saturday, and I, like many other hunters in this area, anxiously await the break of the sun and the crack of the first shot. Good luck to those fortunate enough to join the pursuit and be safe out there! More information about the waterfowl survey is on our Waterfowl Aerial Inventories page. Stay tuned for more updates next week…

A person in a blue shirt holding three ducks.

A person in a hat and green shirt holding three ducks. — Forbes staff releasing captured northern shovelers.

A person in a hat and an off-white shirt holding four ducks.

Week 8 – October 24, 2024

We got back up in the air on Thursday, October 24th, for the aerial waterfowl survey of the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers. Unfortunately, fog kept us out of the lower Illinois River, and we finished that up on Friday, October 25th. We don’t like to split days on this survey, but sometimes it becomes necessary. Duck abundance was below the LTA across the survey area, especially along the central MS River. We have had ducks move into the area, though, and that was apparent on the Illinois River this week. I estimated 177,640 ducks in the IRV on Thursday, 12% less than the 10-year average of ~202,000 ducks. The MS River was another story; I observed 75,955 ducks, 45% below the 10-year average (~139,000). Along the IRV, we are at or above the LTA for green-winged teal, northern pintail, American wigeon, blue-winged teal, and gadwall. The deficit below LTA is coming from mallards, northern shoveler, and the early diving ducks along this river. Along the CMRV, every species except blue-winged teal and American wigeon is below LTA this week. Hopefully that will change with the forecasted wind and cooler temps next week, north of us.

The wing of an airplane. — “A pilot and a biologist walk into a bar…”

Because of the late flight, I don’t have a note for this week prepared. In the central zone, our time in the marsh starts on Saturday, and I, like many other hunters in this area, anxiously await the break of the sun and the crack of the first shot. Good luck to those fortunate enough to join the pursuit and be safe out there! More information about the waterfowl survey is on our Waterfowl Aerial Inventories page. Stay tuned for more updates next week…

An aerial view of fog over water. — Fog blankets the north pool of Chautauqua NWR near Liverpool, IL on October 24, 2024.

Fog over a body of water. — Fog resting over the Illinois River on Thursday, October 24, 2024.

Week 7 – October 15, 2024

We got back up in the air on Tuesday, October 15th, for the aerial waterfowl survey of the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers. Overall, duck abundance was low on Tuesday across the survey area. Based on what we’ve been seeing while scouting for trapping over the course of this week, I suspect the recent windy days and cooler temps have changed that in our area. Still, I estimated 77,425 ducks in the IRV on Tuesday, 37% less than the 10-year average of ~123,000 ducks. The trend was more exaggerated on the MS River, where I observed 31,795 ducks, 62% below the 10-year average (~84,000). Blue-winged teal were still abundant during our flight, especially on the Illinois River, where we counted ~5,000 of the rockets, 185% above the 10-year average of that species for this week. The fact that blue-wings are hanging around and we’re gradually picking up green-winged teal and northern pintail suggests that fall migration is moving just a tad slower than average for our region.

The view from a concealed duck blind. — A concealed duck blind in central Illinois prior to the central zone youth opener.

Habitat conditions, though not as good as the previous 2 years, look above average in our region. The late drawdown in many areas managed to yield at least marginal food production in places and the portions of the higher elevation backwaters that were dewatered on time grew great food. Unfortunately, there are still some exposed mudflats out there that didn’t have time to yield any moist-soil vegetation. Several refuges were actively bringing on water during the flight, setting the stage for our north zone and central zone youth openers on Saturday. I often think of a quote from a colleague’s presentation on moist-soil management a few years back, when I see active water management: “If it is deep enough to run an outboard, it’s too deep for dabblers.” Good luck to the central zone youth and our north zone brethren this weekend! More information about the waterfowl survey is on our Waterfowl Aerial Inventories page. Stay tuned for more updates next week…